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陆挺过去十年中国增速下行的主要原因是中国潜在增长速度下行
2020-01-08 00:53   来源:  www.photo-nude.com   评论:0 点击:

陆挺过去十年中国增速下行的主要原因是中国潜在增长速度下行有人说过去这十年经济增长速度明显不尽如人意,

有人说过去这十年经济增长速度明显不尽如人意,从10%到6%,主要的原因是刺激力度不足。我认为论据是不足的,先不说2009年-2010年中国的社会融资规模增长速度达到30%左右,就说2016年、2017年也到达17%、18%。这几年中国社会融资规模或者全社会信贷增长速度远远高于GDP的增长速度。

Some say the past decade's growth has been markedly less rapid, from 10% to 6%, mainly because of a lack of stimulus. I think the argument is insufficient, let's not say that China's social financing scale grew at about 30% in 2009-2010, but also reached 17% and 18% in 2016 and 2017. In recent years, the scale of China's social financing or the growth of credit in the whole society has been much faster than that of GDP.

另一方面从财政角度来看,如果加上中国地方政府隐性债务,过去十年中国政府的财政赤字在8%到10%左右,远远高于世界平均水平,因此在这个过程中说中国的刺激力度不够是不严谨的。

On the other hand, the government's fiscal deficit in the past decade, if combined with China's local government's implicit debt, has been around 8% to 10%, well above the world average, so it is not rigorous to say in the process that China's stimulus is not strong enough.

从杠杆率上升的角度来讲,中国过去十几年在杠杆率方面全球增速是最快的;从劳动力角度来讲,过去十年一直在往上走。另一方面农民工的收入,和城镇集体企业人均工资和其他企业的人均工资增长速度大部分超过了中国名义GDP的增长速度;从劳动力的角度来讲,也没有看到明显过去十年有大量的失业人员。这个角度判断,没有发现因为刺激不够,我们总供给远远大于总需求,中国经济增长完全可以增长更快,并没有这样的逻辑。

In terms of rising leverage, China has seen the fastest global growth in leverage over the past decade or so; in terms of labor, it has been moving upwards for the past decade. On the other hand, the incomes of migrant workers, as well as the per capita wages of urban collectives and other enterprises, have grown more rapidly than the growth of China's nominal GDP, and the labour force has not seen a significant number of unemployed people in the past decade. From this point of view, it is not found that because of insufficient stimulus, our aggregate supply is far greater than aggregate demand, and there is no such logic that China's economy can grow more rapidly.

很多人都说本来我们8%要增长十年、二十年肯定没有问题,唯一罪魁祸首是全球经济,尤其是雷曼危机,直接导致了本来中国每年可以增长百分之八九,还可以增长十年二十年,但是到了全球金融危机之后全球的增长速度放缓,所以,压制整个中国出口的增长速度,是不是这样呢?中国的出口与全球的增长速度,可以说在2008年、2009年以前基本上是同步的,但是到了这之后的话,其实全球经济增长速度,除中国以外,过去八九年跟金融危机之前仅慢了个百分点,而中国的出口增长速度慢了将近二十个百分点,原因是什么?难道都是怪全球经济吗?肯定不是,这中间有一个原因是我们国内的廉价劳动力逐渐丧失,另一方面中国经济占全球中间的比例越来越高,当全球经济增长速度只有百分之二三,我们怎么可能每年增长百分之二三十呢,你的增长需求结构必须要调整。

Many say that if we were to grow 8% for a decade or two, the only culprit would be the global economy, especially the lehman crisis, which directly led to china's growth rate of 89% per year or 10 or 20 years per year, but the global growth rate slowed after the global financial crisis, so isn't that true for suppressing the growth of exports across china? China's exports are largely in line with the world's growth rate before 2008 and 2009, but after that, the growth rate of the global economy has been only one percentage point slower in the past eight or nine years than before the financial crisis, and China's export growth rate has been nearly 20 percentage points slower. Are they all blame for the global economy? Surely no, there's one reason why we're losing cheap labor at home, and the fact that China's economy is making up a growing proportion of the world's middle, when the world's growth rate is only two or three percent, how can we grow by two or thirty percent a year, and your growth needs have to be restructured.

过去十年中国经济增长速度下行的主要原因是中国潜在增长速度下行,不是各种外需原因或者是刺激不够的原因。未来五到十年我们国家潜在的增长速度究竟会是怎样,这个难度非常大,因为涉及到对未来的判断。我的判断就是未来这几年我们的潜在增长速度会到6%以下,接近5,甚至接近4,但是更有可能往下先走到5%左右。

The main reason China's economic growth has fallen over the past decade is that the country's potential growth rate has fallen, not because of a variety of external demand or insufficient stimulus. What the potential growth rate of our country will be in the next five to ten years is very difficult because it involves judging the future. My judgment is that in the next few years our potential growth will be below 6%, close to 5, or even 4, but more likely to go down to about 5%.


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