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保房價還是匯率中國香港和日本經濟結構比較穩定,俄羅斯付出沉重
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保房價還是匯率中國香港和日本經濟結構比較穩定,俄羅斯付出沉重代價房地产业是我国国民经济的重要支柱产业

房地产业是我国国民经济的重要支柱产业,也是每个国家经济结构中不可或缺的一部分。但是房地产就像弹簧一样,一旦政策稍有松动,房地产泡沫便会迅速兴起。

Real estate industry is an important pillar industry of our national economy, and it is also an indispensable part of every country's economic structure. But real estate is like a spring, once the policy is slightly loose, the real estate bubble will rise quickly.

如今,国内房地产市场泡沫正在被遏制,但按照“十三五”规划,到2030年,亿至亿人将从农村进入城市,楼市将迎来更多需求,防泡沫的压力更大。一边要保民生,一边要控房价,这对于包括中国在内的许多经济体决策层来说,都是个两难选择。其中中国香港和日本最终都选择了保汇率弃房价,而俄罗斯则为了保房价,最终使得经济元气大伤。

Today, the domestic property market bubble is being contained, but under the 13th Five-Year Plan, between 100 million and 100 million people will enter the city from the countryside by 2030, the property market will have more demand, and the pressure to prevent the bubble will be greater. It is a dilemma for many decision-makers, including china, to protect their livelihoods and control house prices. Both hong kong and japan ended up bailing out house prices, while russia ended up hurting the economy to protect them.

香港自1983年10月起实行联系汇率制度,即港币汇率紧紧盯住美元。然而也正是因为此,导致香港在货币政策决策方面失去了独立性,更兼顾不了汇率和房价。

The Hong Kong currency has been pegged to the dollar since October 1983. However, it is precisely because of this that Hong Kong has lost its independence in monetary policy decisions, much less its currency and house prices.

面对困境,香港保汇率还是保房价呢?如果保房价,随着美联储的加息,港币短期市场利率并没有随之走高,香港房价将持续上涨。据统计,2016年-2018年,港岛A类私人住宅售价上涨了35%。如果保汇率,流动性势必收紧,香港金管局跟随美联储加息的话,长期看房价将受挫,资本自由流动的香港将面临资本流出的。

In the face of difficulties, Hong Kong's exchange rate or house prices? If house prices are protected, Hong Kong prices will continue to rise as short-term market rates do not rise as the Fed raises interest rates. According to statistics, the price of class A private homes on Hong Kong Island rose 35 percent in 2016-2018. If the exchange rate is maintained, liquidity is bound to tighten, and if the hong kong gold administration follows the fed to raise interest rates, long-term house prices will be frustrated and free-flowing capital will face capital outflows in hong kong.

最终,香港选择了放弃房价,稳定汇率。2018年二季度以来,香港金管局多次在市场买入港币投放美元,旨在稳定港币汇率。

In the end, Hong Kong chose to abandon house prices and stabilize its exchange rate. Since the second quarter of 2018, the HKMA has repeatedly bought Hong Kong dollars in the market to put in dollars, aimed at stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate.

而在短期市场利率一次次创新高后,中长端贷款利率也开始提升。香港汇丰、渣打、中银香港等主要银行也跟随上调按揭贷款利率。到了2018年三季度初,香港住房贷款利率已创近10年来最高值,对房价构成直接打压。

And after short-term market interest rates have risen again and again, interest rates on medium- and long-term loans have begun to rise. Major banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered and BOC Hong Kong have also followed the hike in mortgage lending rates. By the beginning of the third quarter of 2018, Hong Kong's home loan rate had hit its highest in nearly a decade, directly weighing on house prices.

1985年“广场协议”签订之后,日本为了遏制日元升值,于是下调了市场贴现率,同时扩大和提高本国的经济竞争力,然而低利率对提升竞争力效果有限,但却导致了房地产泡沫。

After the Plaza Accord was signed in 1985, Japan reduced the market discount rate to curb the yen's rise, while expanding and improving its economic competitiveness, but low interest rates had limited effect on competitiveness but led to a real estate bubble.

随着大量资金涌入日本房地产行业,日本的地价也开始疯狂飙升。据日本国土厅公布的调查统计数据,1985-1988年,东京的商业用地价格指数在短短三年内增长了近2倍。

As money poured into japan's property sector, land prices in japan began to soar. Tokyo's commercial land price index nearly tripled in just three years from 1985 to 1988, according to survey statistics released by Japan's Land Office.

为了不让日元继续大幅升值,日本政府决定采用行政手段,主动挤出房地产泡沫。此时由于公司破产,导致大量被抛售的不动产涌入市场,房地产市场供过于求。

In order not to allow the yen to continue to appreciate substantially, the government decided to use administrative measures to proactively squeeze out the property bubble. At this time, due to the bankruptcy of the company, resulting in a large number of sold-out real estate into the market, the real estate market oversupply.

与此同时,由于日元升值空间被压制,套利空间日益缩小,国际资本开始撤逃。1992年,日本政府出台“地价税”政策,日本房地产市场立刻开启漫长的下跌之旅。日本统计局数据显示,从1992年-2015年,日本国内六大主要城市住宅用地价格跌幅为65%,所有城市跌幅为53%。

At the same time, because the yen appreciation space is suppressed, arbitrage space is shrinking day by day, international capital began to flee. In 1992, the government introduced a \"land tax\" policy, the japanese real estate market immediately began a long journey down. From 1992 to 2015, the price of residential land in the country's six major cities fell by 65 per cent and 53 per cent in all cities, according to the bureau of statistics.

苏联解体后,经过几年的阵痛期,俄罗斯经济开始逐渐走上正轨,而经济的膨胀也必将带来货币超发,同时普京总统也将住房并入俄罗斯四大优先发展项目。多种利好使得俄罗斯房价高歌猛进。

After several years of labor pain after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian economy began to get on track, and the expansion of the economy was bound to bring currency overhang, while President Putin also incorporated housing into Russia's four major development projects. A variety of good makes russian house prices soar.

但汇率实现自由浮动后,无疑加大了经济的不稳定性。雨漏偏逢连夜雨,此时的原油价格开始下行,而俄罗斯又是主要依靠能源出口的国家,经济结构单一,原油价格的波动会直接造成卢布币值的不稳定。起初,俄罗斯初衷也是希望汇率和房价兼顾,但事实证明只能取其一。

But when the exchange rate is free to float, it undoubtedly increases the instability of the economy. When the rain falls at night, crude oil prices start to fall, and russia, a country that relies mainly on energy exports, has a single economic structure, and the volatility of crude oil prices will directly lead to instability in the value of the ruble. At first, russia wanted a balance between exchange and house prices, but it turned out to be one.

在面对卢布贬值,大规模资本外逃的情况下,俄罗斯央行一方面连续上调基准利率,另一方面动用外汇储备对冲汇率下跌。

In the face of devaluation of the ruble and massive capital flight, the russian central bank, on the one hand, raised its benchmark interest rate and used its foreign-exchange reserves to hedge against falling exchange rates.

然而一切都无济于事,2014年11月10日,俄罗斯央行宣布取消实际有效汇率的上下浮动限制,放弃对卢布汇率的自动干预机制。在随后的两个月时间里,卢布大幅贬值近50%。然而此时俄罗斯为了不让房价由于上调基准利率而受到打压,又开始逐步下调基准利率,由2014年12月的高点连续5次下调,半年内下降了6个百分点。

None of this will help, however. On november 10,2014, the russian central bank announced that it would lift the fluctuation of the effective real exchange rate and abandon the automatic intervention on the ruble exchange rate. Over the next two months, the ruble fell sharply by nearly 50 per cent. Yet russia, trying to keep house prices from being weighed down by raising its benchmark rate, began gradually cutting it, down six percentage points in half a year from its december 2014 high of five in a row.

最终,俄罗斯国内房地产一手房价格开始上行,一手房价格由2014年12月的51,714卢布每平米上涨至2016年6月的53,558卢布每平米,涨幅为%。但经济却经不起这么折腾,GDP从14年开始再次负增长。

Eventually, Russian domestic real estate first-hand house prices began to rise, rising by% from 51,714 roubles per sq m in December 2014 to 53,558 roubles per sq m in June 2016. But the economy can't stand this, with GDP growing negatively again from 14 years.

回过头来,我们可以看到,抛弃房价后的香港和日本经济结构依然比较稳定,尤其是香港,即使在全球增速下滑甚至负增长的情况下,2018年仍保持着3%的增速,而俄罗斯的例子更是让我想起了郭树清的一句话:凡是过度依赖房地产实现和维持经济繁荣的国家和地区,最终都要付出沉重代价!

In retrospect, we can see that the economic structure of Hong Kong and Japan after the abandonment of house prices is still relatively stable, especially Hong Kong, even in the case of declining or even negative global growth, the growth rate of 3% in 2018, and the Russian example reminds me of Guo Shuqing's saying: all countries and regions that rely too much on real estate to achieve and maintain economic prosperity will ultimately pay a heavy price!

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